Many people think that planning for retirement is simply not something that they need to do at this stage in their life. But with the speed in which time goes by, old age can sneak up on you sooner than you thought and if you have not prepared effectively, you could find yourself struggling to enjoy your later years as much as possible. As life expectancy continues to increase, old age is something that will […]

With the S&P 500 hitting its 36th all-time high of 2025 last week, many investors are wondering whether now is a good time to buy. After all, wouldn’t you get a better price if you waited? Technically, you very likely would. As I stated in Just Keep Buying: If you randomly picked a trading day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average between 1930-2020, there is over a 95% chance that the Dow would close lower on some day in the future. So while we are likely to see a lower price by waiting, unfortunately, these lower prices are rare (i.e. they only occur on 5% of days). More importantly, these 5% of days can’t be identified ahead of time. But, what about after an all-time high? The analysis above was done across all trading days. If we subset to only all-time highs, would the probability of seeing a lower price in the future change? To test this, I re-ran this analysis from January 1915 to October 2025 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Across all trading days, the chance that the Dow would close lower on some day in the future was 96.7% (even higher than during 1930-2020 period). But, if you bought at an all-time high, the probability that you’d see a lower price in the future was 97.0%. It was slightly higher than when the market is not at an all-time high. While this might seem like evidence that you shouldn’t buy at all-time highs, unfortunately, this difference was not statistically significant. The difference between 96.7% and 97.0% seems to be just random chance. In other words, when you buy at an all-time high you are no more likely to see a future lower price than buying on any other trading day. So while buying U.S. stocks at an all-time high doesn’t seem to harm us, does it help us? Historically, not really. From 1950-2025, the future 1-year returns of the S&P 500 are actually lower when near an all-time high (“Near ATH”) than when off an all-time high (“Off ATH”) [8.3% vs. 10.1%]. In this case “Near ATH” means anytime the S&P 500 is within 5% of an all-time high, “Off ATH” is all other times: As you can see, the 1-year return distributions are similar though the “Off ATH” distribution is shifted slightly to the right (i.e. has better returns). But if we look over a 3-year return window, this changes. For 3-year future returns, it’s better to be near an all-time high than off of one [8.4% annualized vs. 7.8% annualized]: Because the 1-year and 3-year returns point in opposite directions, this suggests that market timing based on all-time highs doesn’t work. In other words, being near an all-time high doesn’t seem to impact future U.S. stock returns in any consistent or meaningful way. While there are long stretches where the S&P 500 doesn’t hit all-time highs (see below), these periods have been quite rare: But what about other markets? Though the

Budgets often get a bad reputation. Many people associate them with restrictions, cutbacks, or endless spreadsheets. But at its core, strict budget management isn’t about limiting what you can do — it’s about enabling what matters most. When handled with intention, a disciplined budget becomes a powerful roadmap for stability, growth, and adaptability in both … Read more

My Sweet Retirement Singapore REITs to Buy in November 2025 Are you looking for Singapore REITs to buy in November 2025? Investing in Singapore REITs has been a reliable and rewarding way to grow my passive income. Over the past year alone, I collected S$19,000 … Singapore REITs to Buy in November 2025 My Sweet Retirement

Here’s a reminder to double-check your November budget for these potential expenses. The post TURKEYS AND STUFFING! IT’S TIME TO SET YOUR NOVEMBER BUDGET appeared first on a life on a dime.

We are both pretty frugal, which has been our saving grace when it comes to our FIRE journey. We were always able to live on one income, saving (and later investing) the remainder. It got us where we are today, which is pretty darn awesome. So you’d expect us to only have good things to say about being frugal. But the downside of frugality is also becoming clear to us. We can’t spend money…. The downside of frugality Frugal vs cheap There is a fine line between being frugal (which is generally a positive thing, with a balanced approach to spending money wisely) and being cheap (which is a negative thing, where the only goal is to minimise spending at all costs). We all have our cheap moments, but we generally are actually frugal by nature. However, there are moments you just don’t want to be frugal. There are moments you just want to spend money. Just because you can or because it just feels damn good! But you can’t, because some little voice in your head is putting on the breaks… What works Okay, so I’ve been testing my boundaries the past year or so. So far I have been able to drop €225 on a weather station, which I gave myself for last Christmas. I’ve also spend about €1.000 on three Lego Technics sets in the past two years (albeit via Marktplaats). More recently I have dropped €220 on two tickets and a night our with Mrs CF at the Amsterdam Dance Event. And I’ve spent about €200 on bird food for the coming winter. This might go up too, as I’m being generous and return on investment is awesome! The whole yard is buzzing with life. Everyone that is visiting is noticing this too, and they love it, and obviously so do we. But as you can see, I’m able to fairly easy drop up to about €500 on stuff I don’t really need, but that do give me a lot of joy in the short or longer term. However, this seems to be the limit as to my frivolous spending ability. And what doesn’t… Lately I decided to see if I could up this a nudge (or more). I’ve been looking at a new (used) electrical car. Do we need one? No, the Prius is still going strong with no major issues. Damn you Japanese build quality! Would I like a new (used) car. Yes, of course! Who doesn’t?! In the past I always wanted an Aston Martin DB9, still think this is one of the prettiest cars ever made. Having said that, we actually sat in one and now know why Jeremy Clarkson was complaining about the space. Now, a DB9 can now be bought for around €40-60k. Mind you, you would have a 20 year old car, with very expensive spare parts and hydraulic hoses and seals that are slowly disintegrating. Financially not a great choice, duh! Nor a practical one either, with a

The holidays have a way of magnifying everything…our joy, our generosity, and sometimes…our stress. Between the pressure to find perfect gifts, attend every event, and make the season “magical,” it’s easy to feel like the true meaning of the holidays gets lost in the chaos. But here’s something interesting: studies and real-life stories alike show that frugal people are happier during the holidays. I’ve learned over the years that being frugal during the holidays doesn’t mean missing out…it […]

Feeling the itch to update your home but don’t want more stuff? Here are my favourite clutter-free ways to refresh your space and make it feel new again. The post Clutter-Free Ways to Update Your Home (Without Buying A Ton of Stuff) appeared first on Simply + Fiercely.

When money is tight, groceries are one of the first areas where you can save a lot of money fast. You don’t have to overspend to feed your family well. With a little strategy and an intentional shopping list, you can stock your pantry with cheap, filling, and versatile foods that help you cut down … Read More about 40 Cheapest Grocery Items to Buy When You’re Broke The post 40 Cheapest Grocery Items to Buy When You’re Broke appeared first on Budgets Made Easy.

Thanks for all the comments and tips on my last post about our upcoming trip to Washington DC and NYC! I’ve compiled all the suggestions and plan to use many when we travel! I realized I hadn’t mentioned a timeframe – we won’t be going until the Spring. Hopefully by then the government shutdown will be resolved! Thanks again to everyone who reached out and left a comment! Today, I wanted to talk about budgeting for home improvement projects. Since moving into our house just over 5 years ago, we’ve made it a goal to do one or two small projects each year (usually $2,000 or less). Past projects include adding astroturf to our backyard, installing solar screens to help with electricity (and protect us from the Arizona heat!), and replacing our too-small water heater with a tankless option. These were done gradually across time, and usually paid for with a “third paycheck” month, so the cost didn’t disrupt our regular budget. That system has worked well, but lately I’ve been wondering whether we should intentionally set money aside for these projects each year. We already have a house “emergency fund” for major issues like an HVAC replacement or roof repair, but I see that as separate from smaller planned upgrades. One part of me thinks – “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!” Why complicate something thats working? The other part of me thinks – “What if we want to take on something bigger that isn’t an emergency?” The thing that comes to mind is replacing our downstairs flooring. Currently it’s a mix of tile and carpet and both are in pretty rough shape. We have several cracked tiles (from the home settling) and the carpet is pretty beat up from dogs and kids. I’m not rushing out to make any flooring changes right away (frankly, the price tag scares me!), but it’s something I think about – especially if we plan to stay here another 5 years (which is our current plan). When I did some googling, I learned there’s no “one” answer for how much people spend on home improvement annually. This one article suggests the average is about $9,000 per year. Then I googled what Dave Ramsey says. I’m not a 100% Ramsey-follower, but his debt aversive thought process appeals to me. According to Ramsey, no more than 25% of your budget should go toward household expenses, including mortgage, property taxes, insurance, and any home improvements or upgrades, combined. Using that as a guide, we have some room to start saving for future projects, if we want. So now I’m curious – what do you do? Do you plan and budget for home improvements that occur regularly across time? Do you live with things as-is and then tackle everything before selling? With my first home, we did almost nothing until the end, when we spent thousands fixing it up for sale. It would have been nice to enjoy some of those upgrades while we still

The 2025 Canadian Financial Summit took flight this past week. It features presentations from a who’s who in the Canadian financial education space, and then it includes a few also -rans such as me, Dale the creator of Cut The Crap Investing and Retirement Club. My presentation covered the most common mistakes in retirement. In the mix of the common mistakes was insufficient (or no) estate planning. That can begin with not having a will […]

When my wife and I started planning for retirement, it was confusing and complicated. We turned to a “financial advisor” who didn’t have our best interests at heart. He was more of a salesperson than an advisor. I wish I had access to some of the best retirement calculators available today. Tools like these make it easy to see exactly where you stand and how to reach financial independence on your own terms. Fortunately, there […]

Before the article, check out the latest on my podcast, Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors: On Apple Podcasts On Spotify On YouTube Now, here’s today’s article: Reader Lisa wrote in this week, Jesse – my understanding is that both stock prices and stock valuations matter for long-term returns. So…with both pretty high like you mentioned last month, what are your returns expectations going forward? Is it something different than 10% per year? That’s what I’m using in my spreadsheet. Is there a “math-y” way to better find a % return number for the future? Almost exactly a year ago, I wrote this post: What Long-Term Stock Returns Should I Assume For My Plan? What Long-Term Stock Returns Should I Assume in My Plan? It’s a complicated answer, and I recommend you read that article. I ended that article with this statement: If I’m doing literal back-of-the-napkin math for someone, my go-to numbers are 9-10% for diversified stocks, 4-5% for diversified bonds, 3% for inflation. But I know the limits of such simple assumptions, and I know when not to use them. I want to amend something. Specifically – I think my stock return assumptions of 9-10% per year were TOO OPTIMISTIC. I’ll tell you why today. I want to dive deeper on valuation and the equity risk premium today and suggest some reasonable math-based models for including them into our forward-looking return assumptions. These numbers matter because they trickle down into other areas of our financial planning. How much do we need to save for retirement? Should we invest in stocks or pay off debt? Etc. It’s all based on our assumed future returns. To truly understand this topic, we need to define a few terms first: Real returns (vs. nominal returns) Valuation The equity risk premium But First…The Usual Preamble Before the good stuff, please know this: I’m not predicting the future. I don’t know how the stock market will actually perform. I don’t have a crystal ball. For those keeping track – yes, Saruman two weeks in a row! Financial planning isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about preparing for it by narrowing the range of possible outcomes. Along the way, we make assumptions about the future, and then continually test, refine, and correct them as reality unfolds. That’s all we’re doing today. Refining some assumptions. Real Returns vs. Nominal Returns Hopefully, you’ve heard these terms before, and this definition makes sense to you. Real returns include the adverse effect of inflation, whereas nominal returns do not. Some quick, easy math might show you that a 10% nominal return minus 3% inflation leads to a 7% real return. Real returns are the metric of merit. Real returns explain how much your actual purchasing power has grown, or shrunk, over time. Source – Ashby Daniels / Retirement Field Guide