A year ago I wrote the blog post Why I’m Bearish on U.S. Stocks (for the Second Time Since 2017). Since then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided. So where did I go wrong? And how can you prevent yourself from making the same kind of error in the future? This Time is Different (When Overfitting Fails) A year ago I saw a few signs that reminded me of the 2021 market exuberance: Chamath Palihapitiya was filing for a new SPAC Meta was paying $250M+ to hire individual AI researchers The S&P 500’s Price-to-Sales ratio was back near an all-time high As I stated, “It’s not that any one of these things represents a mania, but collectively they do.” While there definitely is some mania around AI, each of the signs I focused on ended up being less significant than I originally believed. First, Chamath launching a new SPAC isn’t a sign of anything. He is going to do what’s in his best interest, regardless of what the rest of the market is doing. If he can find a way to cash in, he will, whether it’s crypto, AI, or something else. Second, Mark Zuckerberg has been known to “overpay” for things today only to look like a genius in hindsight. I remember when he bought Instagram for $1 billion and many thought he was crazy. Looking back now it’s arguably the best acquisition in business history. The fact that he paid a few billion dollars for the world’s best AI researchers is another such bet that I weighed too heavily. This is what Zuck does. We will just have to wait and see if it pays off. Lastly, sometimes your data is wrong. Below is the chart I posted a year ago of the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio going back to the 1940s (from DQYDJ.com): As you can see, the P/S metric peaked at 3.41 in 1999. After seeing the run-up in the ratio in 1999, in 2021, and again in 2025, I concluded that we were in bubble territory. Unfortunately, this data series was inaccurate, but I didn’t know it at the time. I’m not sure exactly what changed in how the data was constructed. What I can say is that the revised series matches other sources I’ve cross-checked. If you go to look at the price-to-sales ratio of the S&P 500 today on DQYDJ.com, the 1999 peak is now around 2.09 (instead of 3.41): This chart tells a very different story. When the P/S ratio passed 2.09 (the 1999 level) in 2017, market conditions weren’t anything like those during the DotCom bubble. No one thought there was the same kind of froth in 2017 as in 1999. And the ratio has kept climbing since, to around 3.5 today, without any accompanying DotCom-style implosion. Therefore, the only correct interpretation of the P/S ratio over the last decade is that it doesn’t signal what it used to.

Good morning! And happy BACK TO SCHOOL SEASON for all those parents out there!! If you can believe it we’ve now got one in elementary school, one in middle school, and now one in high school Man I’m getting old… At any rate, who wants $1,000??? 😉 It’s been a while since we shared this 401(k) contest, but old timers will remember that over a half dozen BudgetsAreSexy readers have won it in years past, so maybe this time it’ll be YOU?? It’s hosted by Jackson, Grant Investment Advisors Inc. who hopes to energize 401(k) participants into learning more, and ultimately investing more. So you can be a 401(k) Millionaire one day like our friend, Fritz! All you have to do is answer a couple of questions (but take your time and really put some effort into it!), and you’ll be entered to win one of **THREE* $1,000 cash awards. That you do not have to invest into your 401(k) lol… Here’s the main thing to marinate on before you start filling it out: If you were to advise co-workers about why they should contribute to (and/or maximize) their 401(k)s, what would you say? What actions might you take to inspire non-participants to participate in their 401(k)s? Once you know what you want to say – and hopefully it’s super personal and/or creative and/or funny! – you can enter directly here: 401kchampion.com/2026-application Deadline to submit is *this Friday* August 28, 2026 by 11:59 P.M. EST, and you must be currently participating (whether employed or retired) in your employer’s 401(k) plan (not a 403(b) plan or other type of plan). You must also be 21 years old or over and a legal residents of the 50 United States or the District of Columbia. GOOD LUCK!!! I want to continue our streak of having winners here, please! And good job on investing into your 401(k) which is a reward all of its own Your busy busy parental friend, [This post, A $1,000 Contest for Sharing Your Love of 401(k)s!, was first published by J. Money on Budgets Are Sexy]

In this week’s stock market outlook, Joel Wenger examines the current market trend, price performance, and headline risks.

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Don’t miss an episode of our podcast, Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors. Available on all podcast players. Here’s the latest episode: Reader Doug wrote to me this week: Any thoughts on using one of the ‘Big Three’ as a financial advisor. Fidelity, Schwab and Vanguard have different programs at different price points (shown below). For some background…it’s vital to remember that these companies swim in various lanes at the same time. They are custodians – places where you can open and keep accounts. They are fund managers – organizations that offer ETFs, mutual funds, etc. that you can pay to invest in. They also offer advisory services. These organizations can be great custodians and excellent fund managers, yet have different standards for their advisory services. I’ve got some thoughts for you, Doug. There’s a Spectrum I’m biased here. It’s important I disclose that. Though I’d like to think my bias is “pro-client.” Here are some great questions to help you discern between good, bad, and ugly advisors. And definitions about how fees are charged. I’d also recommend this podcast episode too: The broader point is that: Some advisors provide detailed planning. Others don’t. Some advisors sell commissioned products (insurance, annuities, etc) and others are fee-only. Some advisors charge high fees, others low fees. Some advisors intentionally work with 40, 60, 80 clients. Other advisors work with 200+. All else being equal, you’d probably prefer an advisor who provides detailed planning, is fee-only, spends plenty of time with you, and charges reasonable fees. So – is that what the “Big Three” provide? Service Tiers We should be looking at the “dedicated advisor tier” in the table below. The robo-only and hybrid tiers provide very little human expertise. They are essentially “investing-only” services. That’s fine – if that’s what you want. But if you are looking for true financial planning, we want to look at the “Dedicated Advisor” tier. Fees Vanguard is the clear winner here at 0.30%. Fidelity and Schwab charge fees much closer to what small, independent financial planners charge. Fidelity’s fees start very high. Well above 1.0% on the first $1M in a client’s portfolio. Schwab’s fees are more reasonable. Client Service and Planning Client service and in-depth planning are where the rubber meets the road. I’ve had a ~dozen prospective clients (and a handful of actual clients) talk to me after working with one of these Big Three. I also regularly read online communities – both of individual investors (customers of the Big Three) and of other financial advisors (including many who work for the Big Three). The commentary always sounds the same. Advisors at the Big Three are overworked. They have too many clients to serve each client well.

“Fries with dinner but no dessert counts as a win.” Who will build the first era-defining consumer AI company? Even the beloved AI tools we already rely on are only one model release away from obsolescence. The lasting advantage will come from products people emotionally trust, build habits around, and fold into their identities. Tomo extends beyond productivity into the higher-order value of wellbeing, and has the founder and product philosophy to define their category, […]

Every month since 2017, I have written an article that shows the growth of our passive income. Over the last couple of years, I’ve added some of my annual goals (New Year’s Resolutions). This is usually where I add some personal stuff. My wife was on work travel for two weeks, so my time was focused on being able to get the kids to camps, karate, etc. while managing the busiest month of dog boarding […]

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a record low in May 2026, even though the broader economy was far from a traditional jobs crisis. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers recorded a sentiment index of 44.8 that month, the lowest reading in the series. By August, sentiment had recovered to 51.7, but households remained unusually pessimistic. That mood can seem difficult to reconcile with employment data. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers […]

Robo-advisors have gone from a niche experiment born during the 2008 financial crisis to a mainstream way to invest, with the industry now managing well over $1 trillion in U.S. assets and projected to keep climbing toward multi-trillion-dollar territory by the end of the decade. Vanguard alone runs the largest platform, with Betterment, Wealthfront, Schwab, and Fidelity Go rounding out the field of high assets under management (AUM) robos. So are they actually worth using, or just a cheaper way to get a mediocre portfolio? Like most things in personal finance, the honest answer is “it depends.” Here’s a breakdown of the real pros and cons. This article may contain affiliate links which means that – at zero cost to you – I might earn a commission if you sign up or buy through the affiliate link. What Is a Robo-Advisor, Exactly? A robo-advisor is a digital platform that builds and manages an investment portfolio for you using algorithms instead of (or alongside) a human. You typically start by answering a short questionnaire about your age, goals, income and risk tolerance. The platform then assigns you a diversified mix of low-cost ETFs or index funds, invests your money automatically, and rebalances the portfolio over time to keep it aligned with your target allocation. Some robo-advisors are purely algorithmic. Others are “hybrid” models that pair the automated portfolio with access to a human advisor, either included in the fee or available as a paid add-on. Many offer additional services such as high-yield cash accounts and ESG portfolios. Wealthfront Cash offers 3.95% interest rate promo (new clients) The Pros of Robo-Advisors 1. Lower fees. This is the single biggest draw. Traditional financial advisors often charge around 1% of assets under management or more. Robo-advisors typically charge a fraction of that. Many automated advisory management fees fall between roughly 0.15% and 0.50%, on top of the low expense ratios of the underlying ETFs. Over decades, that fee gap can significantly change how much wealth you end up with. 2. Low or no account minimums. Robo-advisors made professionally managed portfolios accessible to people who could not have afforded a traditional advisor. Some platforms let you start investing with just $10, which is a big deal for younger investors, people on tight budgets, or anyone just getting started. Wealthfront – Low Fees + Personalized Portfolios 3. Easy to use and available 24/7. You can open an account, answer the risk questionnaire, and be invested within minutes, all from your phone. Unlike a financial planner who might work banker’s hours, a robo-advisor’s app is always there, which suits people with unpredictable schedules or those who simply want to check in on their own time. 4. Professionally built, diversified portfolios. Robo-advisors typically construct portfolios using a handful of broad ETFs spanning stocks, bonds, and sometimes international or alternative assets. For investors who don’t want to research and hand-pick their own funds, this institutional-style diversification can be an upgrade over a self-built, home-brew portfolio. 5.